EMERGING MARKETS-Stocks steady on China tech boost, Israel’s shekel slips ahead of rate decision

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Bank of Israel rate decision on tap

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Egypt June headline inflation at all-time high of 35.7%

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Czech May retail sales drop 6.1% y/y

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Turkish unemployment rate falls to 9.5% in May

By Ankika Biswas

July 10 (Reuters) – A surge in China’s tech stocks helped emerging market equities stay afloat on Monday with investors assessing new economic data and developments on Sino-U.S. relations, while the shekel dipped ahead of a July policy decision later in the day.

China’s producer prices fell at their fastest pace in over seven years in June, while consumer prices teetered on the edge of deflation, further pressuring policymakers to unveil more stimulus.

However, boosted by an 0.6% advance in Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index, the MSCI index for EM stocks was stable with a 0.2% rise.

Alibaba Group and Tencent closed 3.2% and 0.7% higher, respectively, after China’s $984 million fine against Ant Group signalled the end of a regulatory crackdown on the technology sector, with the Alibaba affiliate announcing a share buyback thereafter.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said meetings with senior Chinese officials were “direct” and “productive”, helping stabilise the superpowers’ often rocky relationship.

Meanwhile, the MSCI gauge for EM currencies was flat, with the shekel losing 0.5%.

Bank of America analysts expect the Bank of Israel to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.75%, following a downward surprise in inflation data and economic slowdown.

The Russian rouble was heading back towards the 92-mark against the dollar, not far from an over 15-month low after a slump triggered by last month’s abortive armed mutiny.

In Central and East Europe (CEE), the Hungarian forint steadied against the euro after the S&P affirmed Hungary’s ‘BBB-‘ rating with a stable outlook, giving some comfort to investors amid budget risk concerns.

Data revealed May retail sales data in the Czech Republic declined year-on-year for a 13th consecutive month in the face of growing talks of rate cuts in CEE regions. The Czech crown was flat.

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“In the second half of the year, wage growth can actually turn positive in real terms because the labour market situation remains strong and inflation decelerates. Household consumption and consumer demand are likely to actually improve,” said Marek Drimal, a lead CEEMEA strategist at Societe Generale.

“However, it will not prevent the central bank from starting the rate cutting cycle … our expectation is that start rate cuts will start in September but will be relatively slow.”

The Romanian leu and the Polish zloty were also range-bound.

Data showed Turkey’s unemployment rate slipped to 9.5% in May, while a seasonally adjusted measure of labour under-utilisation fell 1.2 percentage points to 22.5%.

Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek on Sunday said Turkey was taking measures to re-establish fiscal discipline and control the level of the budget deficit.

The lira was down, standing at 26.102 against the dollar.

The South African rand shrugged off early losses and was on track for gains at the start of a week in which local manufacturing and mining data will be released.

Elsewhere, Egypt’s annual urban CPI in June rose to a record 35.7%, the country’s statistics agency CAPMAS showed. This comes with the backdrop of a shortage of foreign currency and repeated devaluations since March 2022. (Reporting by Ankika Biswas, editing by Ed Osmond)